News & Insights

AI Agents Rapidly Reshaping Business Models

A new generation of AI automation tools are destined to disrupt entire business models for firms operating as intermediaries, from insurance and shipping brokers to real estate agents. Over the past several months, Anthropic’s Claude Cowork, Cognition’s Devin and OpenAI’s OpenClaw have rapidly expanded the scope of work that can be automated across knowledge-based industries. OpenAI has seen a 230% growth rate in revenue, while Anthropic has seen its revenue grow by 800% over the past year, relieving the fears of many that AI is simply a capital spending bubble.

Trucking brokerages are an industry that may be vulnerable to these new platforms over time. Much of the industry’s profitability depends on coordinating shipments between shippers and carriers through a manual bidding process. AI systems can match supply and demand in real time as well as much of the manual work involved in a transaction, eliminating the need for more expensive and less efficient workers. Similar disruptions may be on the horizon in real estate brokerage, insurance distribution and legal document analysis, where AI tools increasingly handle tasks like sourcing, drafting and document review.

The equity market is rotating through the sectors that appear most vulnerable, ruthlessly repricing their future prospects as their stock prices deflate. The disruption is particularly visible in the software sector, with traditional software companies relying on per-seat subscription models, charging for each employee using their applications. AI agents challenge this model by allowing a single user to accomplish the work previously performed by entire teams as platforms such as OpenClaw can deploy a team of AI coding agents capable of building complex software systems with a fraction of the time and resources historically required.

Software equities are still down sharply this year. The disruption is extending into private credit markets, where lenders have reported more than 20% exposure to this single industry. Large banks have begun marking down the valuation of software-backed loans, suggesting that they are reassessing the viability of the borrowers’ cash flows.

As disrupted sectors face repricing, capital is rotating toward the inputs supporting artificial intelligence. Demand for semiconductors, networking equipment and the raw materials required to build these systems continues to accelerate. This shift underscores the market’s current view: The winners may not be the incumbents facing displacement, but rather the providers of the underlying technology that enables rapid transformation.

Tech-Software ETF Price

Source: Bloomberg

Productivity Gains Point to Stronger Long-Term Economic Growth

While recent productivity data shows mixed momentum, the longer-term trend remains supportive of economic growth. Nonfarm business productivity rose by 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, on the back of very strong second and third quarters, 5.2% and 4.2% respectively.

The average productivity growth throughout this cycle has also been much higher than pre-pandemic, 2.2% versus 1.5%. Increased efficiencies gained by companies in response to labor shortages and inflation during the pandemic and strong capex growth are likely the main contributors.

Unit labor costs, a strong indicator of wage inflation, came in rather high at 4.4%, but this was on the back of very low growth for the second and third quarters. Year-over-year unit labor cost growth was 2.4%. With the working-age population expanding more slowly than in prior decades, the economy’s ability to grow increasingly depends on getting more output from each worker rather than adding more workers to the labor force.

Sustained capital spending on intellectual property is a major driver of productivity improvements, with a dollar spent yielding the greatest benefits of any investment. U.S. based corporate spending on research and development and software has grown substantially over the past decade and is still accelerating.

Since intellectual property investment leads productivity growth by about one to three years, we may expect outsized improvements for many years, driven by this unprecedented investment cycle. The United States has allocated a significantly larger share of fixed investment toward intellectual property than most developed economies. This has led to a significant outpacing of productivity and the potential for growth in the U.S. versus other countries.

Investment in artificial intelligence amplifies this trend meaningfully. The United States has accounted for the majority of global AI investment over the past decade. As these technologies are deployed through the broader economy, U.S. productivity growth is likely to lead the rest of the world. Many industries appear ripe for this creative disruption, including major sectors such as healthcare, logistics, financial services and professional services.

According to S&P Global, the U.S. invested more than $600 billion in information processing equipment versus Europe’s mere $100 billion. Moreover, the growth rate of capital spending in the U.S. was 22% compared to Europe, which was a paltry 5%. This disparity gives the U.S. a strong advantage on growth.

During the 1990s, the widespread deployment of internet infrastructure and enterprise software generated a productivity surge that supported rapid economic growth with relatively stable inflation, which is a combination that proved highly favorable for equity markets. The productivity gains of that era continued to materialize for years following the initial wave of investment, consistent with the lags typically seen between intellectual property spending and measured output gains. Current trends suggest a similar dynamic today, with the added potential that AI could prove a more powerful productivity tool than the software wave that preceded it.

Productivity Year-Over-Year

Source: Bloomberg

Fix Asset Investment Category % Of Total by Country

Source: OECD

Productivity Growth Since 2019 by Country

Source: Oxford Economics

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